SUMMARY:
On this episode of HoosLeft This Week, Erin Moon-Walker and Nate Stout joined Scott to unpack an Iran war that shifted from active strikes toward negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, not that US forces have much to strike with as reporting revealed the Pentagon has burned through nearly all of its long-range precision missile stockpile and Trump personally confronted Hegseth over the shortage at Camp David. The show then turned to Indiana’s own energy costs — NIPSCO’s push to bill customers for its forced coal-plant operation, and the shakeup at the state’s utility commission after Governor Braun fired commissioner Andy Zay — before covering a Prosperity Indiana report on the widening gap between Hoosier wages and rents, and a national jobs report showing the economy shed jobs in July partly due to the fallout from mass deportations. From there, the conversation moved through Trump’s week of relitigated grievances — the blocked White House ballroom, the Reflecting Pool vandalism claim, a new birthright citizenship order, and another attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook — and into a run of financial corruption stories, including Trump Media’s paid early access to Truth Social posts and Todd Blanche’s overnight, party-line confirmation as Attorney General alongside his private pledges to expand abortion enforcement. The back half of the show worked through a packed primary night: establishment wins in Virginia and Washington, a data-center-skeptic upset in Kansas’s governor’s race, Cori Bush’s loss to Wesley Bell in Missouri, and a strong night for progressives in Michigan with Abdul El-Sayed, Donavan McKinney, and Will Lawrence; plus Andy Ogles’s defeat Thursday in Tennessee. The show closed on party dysfunction on both sides — the DNC’s disputed 2024 autopsy and Third Way’s new anti-DSA campaign, a Tucker Carlson-led Republican breakaway faction, and the Max Miller and Chuck Edwards scandals — before landing on Indiana’s own Medicaid disenrollment crisis and a record wave of school district property tax referendums headed for November’s ballot.
Guest info:
Erin Moon-Walker: https://www.facebook.com/erin.moon.walker
Nate Stout: https://natefor38.com/
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
00:00:34 - Open and guest welcomes (Erin Moon-Walker, Nate Stout)
00:04:03 - Iran war: Hormuz negotiations, missile stockpile depletion, and the risk of wider conflict
00:17:56 - Indiana utilities: NIPSCO’s coal plant bill and the IURC shakeup after Zay’s firing
00:20:50 - Wages vs. rents in Indiana’s housing market
00:25:00 - National economy: weak jobs report and the deportation economy’s backfire
00:32:29 - Trump’s week of vanity projects and re-litigated losses (ballroom, Reflecting Pool, birthright citizenship, Lisa Cook); Head Start
00:41:04 - Breaking through fear and the authoritarian appeal
00:45:25 - Corruption: Truth Social insider trading and Trump’s banking lawsuits
00:46:26 - Blanche’s confirmation fight and abortion enforcement plans
00:54:19 - Tuesday primaries: Virginia, Washington, Kansas, and Missouri
01:05:19 - Michigan primaries: El-Sayed, McKinney, and Lawrence
01:19:23 - Tennessee and Hawaii primaries
01:24:30 - Democrats in disarray: the DNC autopsy dispute and Third Way’s anti-DSA campaign
01:31:35 - Republicans in disrepute: Tucker Carlson’s breakaway faction, Max Miller, and Chuck Edwards
01:38:19 - McConnell’s extended absence from the Senate
01:40:23 - Indiana Senate leadership: Garten’s bid for Bray’s old post
01:43:30 - The human toll of Indiana’s Medicaid changes
01:52:16 - Education funding and the fall’s school referendums
01:59:11 - Wrap-up, guest info, and announcements
IN DEPTH:
Iran War
Monday Iran war updates: Trump says talks ongoing, says ‘last chance’ for a deal (Al Jazeera)
US President Donald Trump says talks with Iran are ongoing, but warns that this is the “last chance for them to sign a good document”.
Iran denies the negotiations, saying it’s speaking to Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says its fighters are standing ready for any “miscalculation by extra-regional enemies or terrorist groups”, in northwestern Iran.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it’s continuing to enforce the blockade against Iran and has redirected 44 commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since it reimposed the measure mid-July.
Israeli forces kill two Palestinians in Gaza as Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye condemn Israel’s violations of the ceasefire in the Strip, especially the attacks on healthcare facilities.
Trump’s Board of Peace says Israeli forces will fully withdraw beyond the “Yellow Line” in eastern Gaza once Hamas has completed the weapons decommissioning process.
Tuesday Iran war updates: Tehran says Oman talks on Hormuz advancing ‘positively’ (Al Jazeera)
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached “today or tomorrow”, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said progress had been made but no final agreement was in place.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said talks with Oman on safe entry and exit lanes in the strait were proceeding positively.
Oil prices fell sharply on hopes of a deal, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel.
US Central Command said the southern Strait of Hormuz route remained open and that more than 1,000 vessels had crossed the waterway with US assistance.
Israel and Lebanon began a seventh round of US-backed talks in Rome, focused on Hezbollah’s disarmament and a gradual Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli forces kill two Palestinians in Gaza as Netanyahu says Israel will not withdraw from their current positions in the Strip until Hamas is fully disarmed.
An Indian vessel sank after being struck near Yemen, but all 14 crew members were rescued.
Wednesday Iran war updates: Tehran, Oman agree on route coordinates in Hormuz Strait (Al Jazeera)
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, says an understanding with Oman over a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz is “on the verge of being finalised”.
US President Donald Trump says Washington is talking to Tehran and that he would “rather make a deal” because he does not want to kill people.
Yemen’s Houthis claimed to have attacked a Saudi oil vessel in the Gulf of Aden, forcing it to turn around.
Israel carried out another strike in southern Lebanon, near Burj Shemali, after killing at least one person in an earlier strike on Tebnin.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that Israel’s expansionist policies could produce a global crisis, saying it has “no intention or plan for peace”.
Iraq’s governing State Administration Coalition has backed efforts to bring all weapons under state control, warning that armed activity outside state authority after September 30 would be dealt with under the country’s anti-terrorism law.
Thursday Iran war updates: Trump says war to end ‘pretty soon’, Hormuz deal nears (Al Jazeera)
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis confirmed targeting multiple Yemeni Emergency Forces camps using suicide drones and ballistic missiles, leaving at least 17 soldiers and one officer dead.
The latest round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel has wrapped in Rome, with the US State Department describing the talks at “fruitful”.
Several countries have condemned Israel’s escalatory attacks in Gaza following a meeting in Amman, Jordan. Hamas has called on the signatories to prevent Israel “from sabotaging the agreement” in Gaza.
At least 300 children have been reported killed in Gaza in the 300 days since the October 2025 “ceasefire”, UNICEF says, amounting to one daily.
Trump, Hegseth clashed at Camp David over Iran missile depletion concerns (WaPo)
Trump confronted Hegseth at Camp David last Friday over munitions shortages he thought had “been fixed” — the ATACMS stockpile is reportedly nearly depleted, a key reason Trump pulled back from what he called “the biggest attack since World War II” against Iran this week.
Hegseth reportedly blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for not fully briefing Trump — though the White House and Pentagon both denied the exchange happened at all.
The numbers are stark: the US fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles and 1,000+ Patriot/THAAD interceptors in the war’s first month alone, and struck over 13,000 targets in Iran through early April.
Replenishment is years away — munitions production requires signed contracts and congressional funding before manufacturing starts, and Hegseth’s $67 billion supplemental request remains stalled in the Senate.
The scarcity has spillover effects: Ukraine is running low on air defenses with few Western stockpiles left, and the US has reportedly changed its threat-response calculus for intercepting incoming munitions based on interceptor availability.
US has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say (Reuters)
The US has used “virtually all” of its global ATACMS and PrSM long-range precision missile stockpile during the Iran war, per three sources — a depletion level not previously reported and one that could force Trump toward riskier piloted bombing missions if strikes resume at scale.
CSIS estimates about 65% of Patriot interceptors have been expended since February, and THAAD interceptor stocks are down at least 38% — figures two sources say match internal US data.
The US has also burned through nearly half its global Tomahawk cruise missile supply, according to one source — Raytheon has reached a tentative multi-year deal with the Pentagon to boost production.
Trump pushed back publicly, claiming the US has “far more munitions than anyone in the world,” while a fourth source countered that CENTCOM has been able to reload from military supplies worldwide, suggesting resupply is happening even amid the drawdown.
Military leaders have reportedly warned Trump for weeks about dwindling defensive stockpiles specifically — though a separate US official disputed reporting that this (rather than pressure from Gulf states) was the main reason Trump held off on a larger new offensive.
Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic, sources say (Reuters)
A proposed Iran-Oman deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through Hormuz — a major concession, since the strait was fee-free and open to all before the war; the US says it will never accept Iranian control of the waterway.
Iran wants fees of 5-7% on cargo value from ships using the strait; Oman is floating around 3%; Washington wants no fees at all — and it’s still unresolved whether Iran would also control outbound traffic, not just inbound.
Iran warned Gulf states that any new US strike on its territory would trigger retaliation against regional energy infrastructure, escalating pressure on Washington’s allies rather than just the US directly.
Trump said he’d “rather make a deal” but added “at some point we’re gonna” kill people if not — a notably blunt acknowledgment even as he’s touted an imminent resolution and oil prices have dropped on his ceasefire comments.
Friday Iran war updates: ‘Mecca Joint Defence Pact’ signed, as Hormuz deal ‘nears’ (Al Jazeera)
Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, committing each country to treat an attack on one as an attack on all.
US Central Command said it has redirected 51 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two others since reinstating its naval blockade of Iran on July 14.
Iran and Oman continued negotiations over a new mechanism for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with disagreements remaining over the extent of Iranian control and whether Tehran could charge vessels for passage.
UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg warned that renewed attacks in Marib and Hadramout, along with attacks on commercial shipping, have raised the risk of Yemen sliding back into large-scale conflict.
Lebanon and Israel agreed on a shortlist of countries that could send troops to verify Hezbollah’s disarmament under their US-brokered agreement.
Indiana Economy
Braun extends gas tax holiday, citing new energy emergency (WFYI)
Braun extended Indiana’s gas tax holiday once again by declaring a new “energy emergency,” this time citing global oil shipping disruptions from the Ukraine conflict and Canadian wildfires — a separate legal basis from the earlier Iran-war emergency that was set to expire.
AG Rokita signed off, arguing nothing in state law prevents the governor from declaring successive emergencies based on different underlying causes — a framework that effectively lets Braun bypass the legislative approval he’d previously said he’d need to extend further.
The holiday has now cost the state roughly $140 million per month, adding up to about half a billion dollars total — local governments are being reimbursed for their share of lost infrastructure funding, with the first repayment already approved by the state Board of Finance.
Rep. Gregory Porter criticized the move for sidestepping the actual driver of high gas prices — Trump’s Iran war — arguing “Indiana can’t be on the hook for Washington, D.C.’s reckless actions forever”; Braun dismissed the criticism as deflection, saying Hoosiers should “count our blessings” the state can afford lighter taxation.
The new holiday is set to expire September 5, meaning this same question — extend again or let it lapse — will likely resurface within a month.
NIPSCO seeks $38M from customers for first 3 months of forced coal plant run (ICC)
NIPSCO wants to charge customers $38 million (including $2.8 million profit) to recover costs of keeping two Schahfer coal units running under federal forced-operation orders, after spending $116.7 million against just $33.5 million in coal revenue this quarter.
This directly extends the Culley/Schahfer forced-operation saga covered earlier — Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s original 90-day order in December has been extended twice more, keeping both plants running through September 19, with NIPSCO now preparing for the possibility of continued operation “through late 2028 or early 2029.”
Unit 18 has been offline since July 2025 after a rotor blade failure and needs extensive repairs before an expected mid-December return — meaning NIPSCO is paying to comply with federal orders on a unit that isn’t even generating revenue.
Separately, the IURC unanimously rejected NIPSCO’s $741 million five-year gas infrastructure plan, ruling the utility failed to justify costs project-by-project — the first such rejection since a 2024 state Supreme Court ruling raised the evidentiary bar for utilities’ infrastructure spending requests.
Zay fired from utility regulator panel weeks after AES hike demotion (ICC)
Braun fired Andy Zay from the IURC entirely — following an earlier demotion — six weeks after his AES rate-hike vote, citing “multiple potential violations of state policy”: failing to file a required financial disclosure after his removal as chair, improperly giving payments and personal gifts to employees, and directing staff to alter a public meeting agenda without the new chair’s knowledge.
This is a genuinely rare move — IURC commissioners can only be fired “for cause,” and the last such dismissal was Gov. Daniels removing Chair David Lott Hardy in 2012 over an ethics scandal involving improper communications with Duke Energy.
The timing directly affects Wednesday’s scheduled vote on whether to reconsider the AES rate hike: with Veleta’s on his way out and Zay’s seat vacant, Ziegner becomes the only remaining commissioner who voted “yes” on the original increase.
Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian pushed back on the framing, arguing “Braun is using Andy Zay as a scapegoat” and noting Braun appointed Zay knowing the AES case was already under scrutiny — placing responsibility back on the governor’s own judgment.
This is the fifth IURC vacancy in under a year, with the nominating committee now reconvening again to find a replacement — an extraordinary rate of turnover for a commission historically defined by its low profile.
Follow-up: Braun fills utility regulator seat 3 days after firing; Indy councilor to serve (ICC)
Braun named Indianapolis City-County Councilor Joshua Bain to fill Zay’s vacant IURC seat, effective immediately — just three days after firing Zay and shortly after a nominating panel released its finalists.
Bain currently works as ODEM’s executive director of legislative and intergovernmental affairs, with prior experience at the Center for Energy Education and in Indiana House Republican politics.
With Zay out and Ziegner remaining, Ziegner is now the sole commissioner left who voted for the AES rate hike — and the only commissioner appointed before Braun took office.
The reconsideration vote on that rate hike, originally scheduled for this week, was pulled from the agenda by new Chair Swinger citing lack of consensus — regulators now have until September 8 to decide, and this shifting membership could swing the outcome.
Bain’s IURC appointment also triggers a City-County Council caucus to fill his now-vacant council seat.
Report shows wages continue to lag behind Indiana’s rental market (IPM)
Indiana renters now need to earn about $24/hour to comfortably afford a two-bedroom apartment, while the average renter wage sits around $19/hour — a $5/hour gap that’s widened since Prosperity Indiana’s 2023 report.
Fair market rent for a two-bedroom statewide is $1,255/month, requiring $50,183 in annual income to stay under the standard 30%-of-income affordability threshold; someone earning Indiana’s $7.25 minimum wage would need to work 3.3 full-time jobs to afford it.
The average Hoosier renter household has about $7,700 less annual purchasing power than three years ago, as rents have risen faster than wages — and the report found 14 of the 20 most common jobs in Indiana don’t pay a sufficient hourly wage to cover that rent.
The affordability gap spans the whole state, though it’s worse near urban areas — roughly 30% of Hoosier households rent, and Prosperity Indiana’s Aspen Clemons links stable housing to higher workforce participation and stronger community well-being, urging policymakers to act.
US Economy
Job losses in July and negative revisions reveal a weakening U.S. labor market (NBC)
The US lost 23,000 jobs in July — far below the gain of 83,000 economists expected — and prior months were revised down a combined 103,000, painting a much weaker labor picture than previously reported.
Wage growth badly missed too: hourly earnings rose just 3.2% year-over-year, the slowest in five years, and below inflation’s 3.5% — meaning real wages are effectively falling.
Labor force participation hit its lowest level since February 2021, with economist Heather Long noting over 2 million people have left the workforce since November, calling the overall report “bleak.”
Job losses concentrated in leisure/hospitality (-40,000), local government education (-50,000, likely seasonal), retail (-19,000), and finance (-14,000), while healthcare, manufacturing, and construction posted modest gains.
The deportation economy is backfiring on American workers, top economist warns (Fortune)
Economists argue the deportation crackdown, not just economic weakness, is driving the falling employment rate — as immigrant workers leave the labor force, native-born Americans aren’t replacing them, they’re simply losing the jobs and support systems tied to that work too.
Healthcare and social assistance — sectors with heavy immigrant representation (28% of direct care workers in 2022) — posted their weakest job growth in three years in July, right as roughly 200,000 people lost TPS status at the end of July, with 400,000 more Venezuelan workers set to lose authorization in October.
KPMG’s Diane Swonk warns this collides directly with state Medicaid cuts, the largest payer for long-term care, meaning families will likely absorb the gap through unpaid caregiving rather than paid replacement workers — a burden AARP estimates is already worth $1 trillion annually nationwide.
New research on ICE enforcement surges found native-born workers aren’t filling vacated jobs: for every six undocumented male workers pushed out of a local labor market, one US-born male worker also lost employment — with construction hit hardest, where less-educated native-born men saw employment fall 3%.
The immigrant labor share extends well beyond care work — roughly one in three tradespeople in US construction is an immigrant, meaning workforce losses can stall entire projects and reduce demand for other workers on the same job site, not just the immigrant workers directly affected.
U.S. Stocks Notch Fresh Record After Jobs Report Eases Rate-Hike Fears (WSJ)
The S&P 500 hit a record close Friday after the weak jobs report reduced odds of a September Fed rate hike — futures now show 58% chance the Fed holds steady, versus a hike, down from earlier expectations.
Nvidia gained 12% for the week alone, adding $562 billion in market cap — its largest weekly gain on record — as beaten-down chip stocks rallied broadly, with the semiconductor index up over 9% this month.
S&P 500 earnings growth is running at 50.4% for Q2, which would be the strongest quarterly growth since 2021, per FactSet — a key driver of the market’s recent momentum alongside easing rate fears.
Not everyone is celebrating: Bank of America’s bull/bear sentiment gauge just hit its highest level since 2021, a historically reliable signal that sharp pullbacks may follow — the bank’s strategist is advising clients to trim risk exposure and rotate into defensive holdings.
All eyes now shift to next week’s July CPI inflation report — a hot reading could quickly revive rate-hike expectations, even though one data point alone likely wouldn’t lock in a September move.
The Trump Firehose
No evidence? No problem. Trump pushes ahead on false claims that Reflecting Pool was vandalized (AP)
US Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office dropped charges against Olympic canoeist David Hearn, admitting in court filings that Reflecting Pool damage was caused by shoddy contractor work, not vandalism as Trump repeatedly claimed.
Trump publicly rebuked Pirro anyway, saying she “folded like an umbrella” and insisting “everybody saw the vandalism” — despite his own DOJ’s filing contradicting him.
Defense lawyers say the case was flawed “from day one” and “motivated by political considerations,” urging the judge to bar it from ever being revived.
Acting AG Todd Blanche avoided directly addressing the dispute, praising Pirro’s broader record while acknowledging “not every case goes exactly the way President Trump wants.”
Analysts note this differs from typical Trump fact-checks — it’s his own administration contradicting him in court, making it harder to dismiss as partisan opposition.
Appeals court blocks Trump’s White House ballroom renovation (Politico)
A federal appeals court panel (2-1) blocked Trump’s demolition of the White House East Wing for a new ballroom, ruling the project needs congressional approval — but stayed the ruling two weeks to let Trump appeal to the Supreme Court, which he says he’ll do “immediately.”
The majority rejected Trump’s national security justification as a blanket shield from judicial review: “such arguments are not an automatic get-out-of-law-free card,” while noting the project’s roughly $400 million in private funding actually reinforces concerns about bypassing congressional oversight.
Trump-appointed dissenting judge Neomi Rao argued the district court overstepped its authority entirely, saying construction should be allowed to continue and mocking the lower judge’s opinion-writing style.
Construction crews demolished the East Wing last October before securing required approvals from DC building oversight boards — the White House says Trump had announced the project in 2025, but critics say that didn’t disclose the East Wing would be fully torn down.
This adds to a string of setbacks for Trump’s DC redevelopment ambitions, following a blocked Kennedy Center renaming attempt and the botched Reflecting Pool restoration covered earlier this week.
Trump again targets birthright citizenship after Supreme Court loss (USA Today)
Trump signed two new executive orders after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier birthright citizenship order 6-3 — one denies citizenship to children of “alien enemies,” foreign government employees, or parents who paid to give birth in the US; the other directs State/DHS to deny visas to suspected “birth tourists.”
The ACLU says the new orders will “meet the same fate” as the last one, calling birthright citizenship constitutionally guaranteed.
The scale of birth tourism is disputed: Trump claimed “hundreds of thousands” of cases, while 140 university law professors told the Court it’s an “infinitesimal proportion” of US births, with independent estimates ranging from 2,000-39,000 annually.
Chief Justice Roberts’s majority opinion framed citizenship as “the right to have rights,” rejecting the administration’s national-security rationale for restricting it.
Trump administration moves to deregulate Head Start, opening door for sweeping change (NPR)
HHS proposed sweeping deregulation of Head Start, cutting the administrative cost cap from 15% to 5% and shifting decisions on student-teacher ratios, education requirements, and background checks to states — officials say this saves $2.2 billion, to be reinvested for 200,000 new spots.
Advocates are skeptical: Start Early’s Yvette Sanchez Fuentes noted admin funds often cover critical gaps like disability services, asking “is it enough to just bring kids in the door if we’re not actually giving kids and families what they need?”
Critics worry the change trades a national quality benchmark for state-by-state variation — the National Association for Family Child Care’s Erica Phillips said “quality is now dependent on your ZIP code.”
This follows years of conservative criticism, including Project 2025’s call to eliminate Head Start entirely — advocates see this proposal as a potential first step toward that goal, though the administration frames it as “flexibility,” not a mandate to cut standards.
The process is just beginning: it’s a formal rulemaking notice open for 60 days of public comment, meaning new standards likely won’t take effect for six months to a year.
Corruption
For sale: early access to Trump’s Truth Social posts (NPR)
Trump Media is selling early access to Trump’s Truth Social posts for up to $100,000/month via “Truth API,” giving paying trading firms a head start on market-moving presidential announcements.
Former SEC official Renée Jones argues this likely violates insider trading law, since it monetizes non-public information and breaches “a duty of trust or confidence” — Trump Media disputes this, calling the posts “publicly available” once posted.
Sens. Warren and Schiff have formally asked the SEC to investigate, calling it “an outrageous abuse of the President’s office for his personal benefit”; the SEC declined to comment.
Multiple Wall Street sources told NPR they’re avoiding the product entirely — one called it “insane” and said “in another administration, this would be considered criminal,” while none would go on record for fear of retaliation.
Trump is the largest shareholder of Trump Media via a trust controlled by Donald Trump Jr., meaning the president’s family financially benefits directly as more institutional investors sign up.
Trump bank accounts were closed due to concerns over possible money laundering, Capital One says (PBS)
Capital One says it closed over 300 of Trump’s business accounts in 2021 after internal anti-money laundering analysts flagged financial activity with characteristics of money laundering — not for political reasons, as Trump alleges in his lawsuit.
Trump’s team amended their lawsuit in July, accusing the bank of “debanking” him for political reasons post-January 6; Capital One calls the new claims “cherry-picked quotations” and wants the suit dismissed. Trump’s spokesperson dismissed the bank’s money-laundering explanation without directly addressing it.
Trump is pursuing a similar $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, which says it doesn’t close accounts for political reasons but does close accounts posing “legal or regulatory risk.”
Trump signed an executive order in August 2025 directing regulators to stop examining banks over who they do business with, and his administration has subpoenaed major banks’ records as part of a broader debanking investigation — tying this dispute to a wider conservative grievance campaign that gained momentum after Operation Choke Point.
Capital One says it never publicized the closures and gave Trump’s businesses several months, plus extensions, to find new banking relationships, which they ultimately did.
Blanche Confirmation
Blanche assures anti-abortion supporters that Dobbs will be ‘permanent in every single state’ (Politico)
On a private, “not for press” call obtained by POLITICO, Blanche told faith leaders DOJ is working to make Dobbs “permanent in every single state,” promising an end to blue-state doctors mailing abortion pills to banned states via shield laws.
This goes further than his public confirmation testimony, where he only committed to “carefully evaluate” enforcement of the Comstock Act without specifics — and it conflicts with Trump’s 2024 campaign pledge that “the federal government should have nothing to do with this issue.”
DOJ says Blanche’s remarks applied only to “mail order abortion drugs,” but he didn’t specify whether the plan relies on FDA restrictions on mifepristone alone, or the more sweeping 1873 Comstock Act, which could block both abortion pills nationwide.
The Biden DOJ had ruled doctors couldn’t be prosecuted under Comstock for mailing the pills since both drugs have legal non-abortion uses; that opinion is now under “thorough review” by Trump’s DOJ.
On Topic: Trump’s New CDC Director Promised Dystopian New Abortion Policy (TNR)
CDC Director nominee Dr. Erica Schwartz told her confirmation hearing that “abortion surveillance is absolutely a critical component” of the CDC’s work, and said she wants states to stop “hiding abortions” within emergency-services reporting categories.
The piece disputes the premise, citing HuffPost reporting that there’s no evidence states are misreporting abortion data — CDC abortion reporting is currently voluntary, and several states (California, New Jersey, Maryland) don’t report at all.
The article argues Schwartz’s framing is backwards: in abortion-ban states, blurred lines between “abortion” and “emergency care” have led hospitals to delay life-saving treatment for pregnancy complications, contributing to higher maternal mortality in those states.
Reproductive Freedom for All’s Mini Timmaraju called the confirmation evidence the CDC’s priorities are shifting toward “an anti-abortion agenda” rather than public health functions like outbreak response.
GOP holdouts say they will back Blanche’s attorney general nomination after striking deal over fund (AP)
Sens. Cornyn and Tillis agreed to back Blanche’s confirmation after DOJ issued a written order formally killing the $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” which had sparked bipartisan concern it could compensate January 6 rioters — Blanche’s order states “beyond any doubt, that there is no Fund.”
The senators also secured written clarification limiting Trump’s tax-audit immunity deal: it applies only retroactively to claims open at settlement time, doesn’t shield future filings, and covers only the actual lawsuit parties — Trump, two sons, and the Trump Organization.
Democrats argue the deal doesn’t actually close the door on compensating January 6 defendants — Sen. Adam Schiff noted a separate existing claims process could still allow payouts, and criticized the tax immunity language as still vague enough to help Trump avoid taxes on $2.3 billion in reported earnings last year.
This resolves the standoff from last week, when Trump had threatened to withdraw Blanche’s nomination entirely and wait until Cornyn and Tillis left office in January, even as he continued defending the fund publicly as compensation for January 6 defendants whose “lives were destroyed.”
The committee is now expected to advance Blanche’s nomination Tuesday — a notable outcome given Blanche has already been accelerating investigations into Trump’s political opponents while serving in an acting capacity.
Sen. Cassidy throws Blanche a lifeline for attorney general nomination (Axios)
Sen. Bill Cassidy will vote to confirm Blanche as attorney general, giving the nomination crucial momentum ahead of the Senate’s August recess — with McConnell still absent, Blanche can only afford to lose two more GOP votes.
Cassidy acknowledged Blanche’s DOJ missteps, including the anti-weaponization fund fight, but argued “the choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche” — framing the alternative as a potentially less effective acting AG.
The nomination had regained momentum earlier this week after Cornyn and Tillis dropped opposition following a written deal to kill the anti-weaponization fund, but Sen. Murkowski announced Friday she won’t support Blanche — adding fresh uncertainty just before Cassidy’s announcement.
Thune wants a vote before recess, but none has been scheduled yet — meaning this remains unresolved with the clock ticking on the chamber’s calendar.
Todd Blanche is narrowly confirmed as Trump’s attorney general in an overnight Senate vote (AP)
The Senate confirmed Blanche as attorney general 50-49 in an overnight vote, with only Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski breaking ranks alongside every Democrat.
Cassidy’s Friday morning endorsement proved decisive, framing his vote as being about Blanche specifically, not a “referendum on President Trump” — even after losing his own primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
Democratic Judiciary Committee leader Dick Durbin called the confirmation a “serious mistake,” arguing the moment demanded “an Attorney General above reproach... dedicated to ending corruption” rather than one this closely tied to Trump personally.
Blanche has already moved aggressively in his acting role — pursuing an indictment against former FBI Director James Comey and appointing a Reagan-era prosecutor to investigate alleged anti-Trump conspiracies among former law enforcement and intelligence officials — signaling his confirmed tenure will likely continue that trajectory.
This vote happened overnight specifically to beat the Senate’s recess, meaning Blanche starts his confirmed tenure with Congress out of session and reduced immediate oversight.
Primary Elections
Tuesday
Virginia
Virginia Democrats pick establishment nominees for 2 US House seats they hope to flip in November (AP)
Virginia Democrats nominated establishment candidates in two flip-target districts: prosecutor Shannon Taylor to challenge Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District, and former Rep. Elaine Luria for a rematch against Rep. Jen Kiggans, who unseated her in 2022, in the swing 2nd District.
Both winners had backing from the House Democrats’ campaign arm and party leaders including Gov. Spanberger — Taylor won a crowded seven-way primary where a progressive candidate took about a fifth of the vote, continuing Virginia Democrats’ pattern of favoring moderates over insurgents.
This follows the state Supreme Court striking down Virginia’s voter-approved aggressive redistricting plan earlier this year — Democrats are now targeting these seats under the original map rather than a more favorable one.
Some Democrats, including Spanberger, are bullish that up to four seats could flip, pointing to Tom Perriello’s primary win in the 5th District against incumbent Rep. John McGuire as another potential pickup opportunity.
Washington
Early state primary results show veteran Democrats holding off progressive challengers (KOMO)
Longtime Rep. Adam Smith easily fended off socialist challenger Kshama Sawant in Washington’s 9th District primary — she took just 13% of early votes, with Smith advancing to face Republican Doug Basler in November.
Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson’s first endorsements underperformed badly: neither Hannah Sabio-Howell nor Ron Davis broke 20% against veteran Democrats Jamie Pedersen (71%) and Gerry Pollet (54.3%) — a political scientist suggested Wilson may have less influence than assumed.
Washington’s top-two primary system tends to favor moderates over ideological insurgents, unlike trends seen in some other states this cycle — a structural factor distinct from voter sentiment alone.
A more progressive shift is emerging in Seattle’s open City Council District 5 race, where Nilu Jenks leads with 50% on a platform emphasizing affordable housing, climate policy, and addressing gun violence.
Kansas
Lawmaker Who Wants Data Center Pause Wins Kansas Democratic Primary (NYT)
State Sen. Cindy Holscher won Kansas’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, beating Gov. Kelly-endorsed Sen. Ethan Corson by running to his left — opposing data centers, criticizing a Chiefs stadium relocation deal, and framing Corson as too cozy with the political establishment.
She’ll face Senate President Ty Masterson, who won the GOP primary with Trump’s endorsement and a record of leading Republican supermajority overrides of Kelly’s vetoes on transgender recognition and election law issues.
Kansas is considered Democrats’ toughest gubernatorial defense among the four Midwest states (with Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin) that flipped in 2018 — Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024, though suburban Johnson County has trended Democratic and voters rejected a 2022 abortion-ban constitutional amendment.
Democrats also kept their sole US House seat intact after a GOP redistricting push collapsed when several Republican lawmakers balked, preserving Rep. Sharice Davids’s Kansas City-area district.
Pastor Adam Hamilton wins Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Kansas (KC Star)
Pastor Adam Hamilton, founder of the nation’s largest United Methodist Church, won Kansas’s Democratic Senate primary with 45% in a crowded field, and will face Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in November.
Hamilton centered his campaign on “decency,” lowering everyday costs, and tying Marshall closely to Trump — “We don’t need more yes men in Washington,” he said in his victory speech, framing himself as independent of both parties.
He held a massive fundraising edge, raising a Kansas record of nearly $3.7 million between April and June, and drew endorsements from former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and KC Mayor Quinton Lucas.
He faced attacks from a fellow Democrat, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, who promoted allegations that Hamilton’s church covered up a sex abuse scandal — claims Hamilton’s campaign denied and says are undercut by court records — plus a federal election complaint alleging improper use of church resources for campaigning.
Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and state GOP chair Danedri Herbert is already framing Hamilton as out of step with Kansas values — meaning Democrats’ optimism about the race still comes with a steep historical climb.
Missouri
Bell defeats Bush in contentious 1st Congressional District Democratic primary rematch (STLPR)
Rep. Wesley Bell defeated former Rep. Cori Bush in their Missouri 1st District rematch — AP called it at 70%+, though the margin has since narrowed to just under 59% with 82% counted. Still a clear setback for progressives after wins elsewhere this cycle.
Israel policy was the defining split: Bush campaigned on cutting off US military aid to Israel; Bell supported continued aid and declined to call Gaza’s situation genocide, drawing criticism over his AIPAC-linked donations.
Bell had establishment backing (Jeffries, Pelosi, Congressional Black Caucus); Bush drew Sanders, Tlaib, and local progressives.
Missouri Republicans are weighing new redistricting next year that would split St. Louis’s Black Democratic base into rural districts — enabled by a recent Supreme Court ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act.
Amendments 4 and 5 were beaten soundly, but it wasn’t record-setting. Proponents say they aren’t giving up. (Springfield Daily Citizen)
Missouri voters crushed two Republican-backed constitutional amendments on August 4: Amendment 4, which would have required citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to win majorities in all eight congressional districts rather than a simple statewide majority; and Amendment 5, which would have phased out Missouri’s personal income tax while raising other sales taxes to offset the lost revenue.
Both lost by lopsided margins — Amendment 4 failed 80.3% to 19.7%, and Amendment 5 failed even worse, 83.3% to 16.7% — with not a single Missouri county voting in favor of either measure, rural or urban.
Gov. Mike Kehoe moved the vote to the August primary date rather than November, which opponents argue was a deliberate attempt to exploit lower, more Republican-leaning primary turnout; Kehoe said the move was to give lawmakers more time to write implementing legislation if Amendment 5 passed.
Amendment 4 supporters say they were vastly outspent, with campaign manager Ray Bozarth blaming “every center-left organization from LA to Washington” and “millions in dark money”; opponents’ spokesperson Scott Charton countered that the pro-Amendment-5 group “Missouri Promise” never disclosed a single individual donor.
Both camps say the fight continues: Amendment 4 backers are considering a revised push for a straightforward 60% supermajority threshold instead of the rejected per-district requirement, while Kehoe says he’ll keep pursuing income tax elimination through other legislative avenues.
Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary in defining race for Democrats (Guardian)
Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary over establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens, overcoming roughly $70 million spent against him — the most ever spent in a Democratic primary — and will face Republican Mike Rogers in November.
El-Sayed centered his campaign on Medicare for All while facing over $40 million in outside spending against him, including from AIPAC-aligned groups; he’s not a democratic socialist but describes himself as “a capitalist who understands how capitalism works” who wants stronger monopoly regulation.
Stevens conceded gracefully and pledged support against Rogers; state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who’d dropped out earlier in the race, also endorsed El-Sayed, signaling a push toward party unity after a bitter primary.
Trump attacked El-Sayed on Truth Social as a “communist loser who hates Jews and Israel,” despite El-Sayed’s repeated denunciations of antisemitism — a mischaracterization El-Sayed didn’t directly address in his victory speech, instead framing the race as being about costs like rent, groceries, and healthcare rather than ideology.
Thanedar loses to socialist in Democratic primary for congress (Axios)
State Rep. Donavan McKinney narrowly defeated two-term Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th District Democratic primary, 51.9% to 48.1%, with the race called Wednesday morning.
The win likely restores Black representation for Detroit in Congress, which ended when Thanedar — who is Indian American — won the seat in 2022.
Thanedar had the funding and name-recognition edge, backed by AIPAC, Hakeem Jeffries, and both the Congressional Progressive Caucus and center-left New Democrat Coalition; McKinney drew support from Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, and local Detroit institutions like labor groups and the Michigan Chronicle.
Axios notes the race wasn’t purely an ideological fight — both candidates ran against Trump and ICE and backed expanded healthcare access — with McKinney’s deep Detroit ties and questions about Thanedar’s effectiveness playing as large a role as progressive-vs-establishment framing.
McKinney still needs to win the heavily Democratic district in November, which is considered a formality given the district’s partisan lean.
Progressive activist wins Democratic primary in one of the nation’s biggest House races (NBC)
Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence won the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 7th District, beating former Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam by running as the most liberal candidate and a strong data-center critic.
He’ll face GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in one of the tightest swing seats nationally — Trump carried the district by just 1 point in 2024, and it’s drawn more outside ad spending than nearly any other House race in the country.
A mysterious super PAC spent over $1 million in the race’s final weeks boosting Lawrence while attacking Maasdam, raising suspicion among some Democrats that Republicans may have helped Lawrence win because they see him as easier to beat in November.
Benson, James set to showdown in Michigan governor’s race (The Hill)
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Trump-endorsed Rep. John James will face off for governor this fall, after Benson easily beat Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and James defeated Perry Johnson in the GOP primary. Whitmer is term-limited and can’t run again; Cook Political Report currently leans the race toward Benson.
The GOP primary turned notably ugly — Johnson ran ads calling James, who is Black, a “DEI candidate” and a “lying liberal loser,” while James fired back at a debate: “Perry, I know when you were born, Black people could still be bought and sold in this country, but no one owns me.”
Johnson significantly outspent James, loaning his own campaign nearly $31 million versus James’s $3.1 million raised, but James’s win still gives Trump a needed primary victory after three of his other gubernatorial picks lost earlier this cycle.
Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who’d polled in double digits as an independent before dropping his bid in May, hasn’t endorsed anyone — leaving open where his supporters land in November.
Trump-backed candidate in battleground Michigan district loses to opponent who dropped out (Politico)
Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan lost Michigan’s 8th District GOP primary to Tom Smith, a candidate who had actually suspended his campaign in mid-July and endorsed someone else — that endorsed candidate finished third anyway.
A GOP strategist said Hassan had “clear flaws as a candidate” and the base was “reluctant to support a dude named Amir Hassan” — a blunt acknowledgment of what likely sank the Trump pick.
Smith will now face Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, whom a Republican strategist called a “powerhouse” incumbent, in a district Trump carried in 2024 but where Democrats are defending well.
This marks the first congressional-level loss for a Trump endorsement this cycle, following earlier gubernatorial losses in Iowa and Georgia.
Thursday – Tennessee
Trump-backed Andy Ogles loses reelection bid and other Tennessee primary results (CNN)
Trump-backed Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary to Charlie Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner, in Tennessee’s redrawn 5th District — another notable defeat for a Trump endorsement, following recent losses in Iowa, Georgia, and Michigan.
Ogles, a Freedom Caucus member, faced controversy over deleted anti-gay and anti-Muslim social media posts and an ongoing ethics inquiry into possible campaign finance violations; Hatcher was boosted by Gov. Bill Lee’s endorsement and pledged Trump loyalty if elected.
In the redrawn 9th District — reshaped to break up Memphis’s Black-majority Democratic seat — Justin Pearson of the “Tennessee Three” won his primary and will face Trump-backed state Sen. Brent Taylor in a race redistricting has made much harder for Democrats to win.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the GOP gubernatorial primary despite Trump staying neutral in that race, positioning her to become Tennessee’s first female governor against Democrat Jerri Green, a public defender, in a state Trump won by nearly 30 points in 2024.
Saturday – Hawai’i
2026 Hawaiʻi primary election results (HPR)
Rep. Ed Case won Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary with 57%, beating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole’s 34%; Rep. Jill Tokuda cruised to renomination in the 2nd District with 84%.
Gov. Josh Green easily won renomination with 83% of the vote; the lieutenant governor race saw new candidates scrambling after Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke dropped out in April amid a bribery investigation — Derek Kawakami won the Democratic nod.
A notable incumbent loss: state Sen. Les Ihara was defeated by Rep. Jackson Sayama by nearly 30 points in Oahu’s District 10.
Local flashpoint: Honolulu City Council candidate Trevor Ozawa leads after successfully arguing incumbent Tommy Waters was ineligible to run for a third term — a dispute that had gone through the courts.
Full, certified results won’t be final for another week, pending a signature-verification period for mail ballots.
Dems in Disarray
Author of Democrats’ 2024 Autopsy Says Party Left Out Key Chapter (NYT)
Paul Rivera, author of the DNC’s 2024 election “autopsy,” says a chapter titled “What Happened in 2024” — questioning Biden’s decision to run for reelection and criticizing Democratic strategists who’d become “generationally wealthy off politics” — was deliberately omitted when the party released its draft report in May.
Chairman Ken Martin flatly denies ever receiving the chapter, calling Rivera’s account “false” and saying “if we had this in May, we would have released it with the rest of the report” — a direct contradiction neither side can fully corroborate since most discussions happened privately between the two men.
The disputed chapter directly questioned the party’s 2022 midterm wins as a false signal: “These wins led Democrats to believe they were stronger than they actually were. President Biden, seeing those results, made the consequential decision to seek re-election even when Americans were already sending a very strong signal.”
The broader process was documented as genuinely chaotic — DNC staff annotated Rivera’s submitted drafts with contempt, flagging unsourced data and inaccuracies, while Rivera says he deleted underlying interview recordings from the DNC server once told the project was being shelved.
This lands amid broader documented turmoil around Martin’s leadership, including a reported HR complaint after he threw his phone at a junior aide’s desk — Rivera has now published his own independent 564-page review, “Blue by 2032,” arguing the party’s inability to accept responsibility “gets in the way of change, reform, growth and progress.”
Author of DNC’s 2024 “autopsy” says he concluded Gaza war hurt Harris (Axios)
Paul Rivera confirmed he privately concluded the Gaza war hurt Harris electorally, particularly costing her tens of thousands of votes in Michigan’s Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck, where Green Party support surged from anti-war organizing — but he never submitted that finding to DNC leadership.
His new independent 564-page report argues Gaza was “one of several factors” behind Harris’s Michigan loss, not the sole cause, while acknowledging Jewish Americans have faced rising antisemitism in the same period.
This is distinct from the “What Happened” chapter dispute reported by the NYT — the chapter Rivera says he did share with the DNC only briefly mentions Israel-Palestine alongside other historic events like 9/11 and Katrina, meaning the Gaza-specific analysis is separate material he never formally submitted at all.
Axios reported back in February that DNC autopsy staff had privately told a pro-Palestinian group the same conclusion — Gaza eroded Harris support — well before this week’s public confirmation.
Moderate Democrats continue disputing Gaza’s electoral significance, citing surveys showing it wasn’t a top voter concern nationally — keeping this a live intra-party disagreement rather than a settled question.
Moderate Democrats Prepare for ‘War’ Against an Ascendant Left (NYT)
Centrist group Third Way is launching a $15 million campaign through 2028 targeting the Democratic Socialists of America movement broadly — including opposition research, polling, and messaging — after El-Sayed’s win, which president Jonathan Cowan called “deeply troubling.”
Cowan specifically criticized El-Sayed (not a DSA member) for what he called the “D.S.A. dodge” — benefiting from progressive organizing energy while avoiding the explicit socialist label — signaling the campaign will target adjacent candidates, not just self-identified socialists.
El-Sayed overcame a massive spending disadvantage, including over $32 million from an AIPAC-linked super PAC that has signaled it will keep opposing him through the general election — he’s made opposing AIPAC and criticizing Netanyahu central to his campaign.
The next flashpoint arrives in a week: Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist state legislator, is the frontrunner in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary — another test of whether this trend extends beyond Michigan.
Progressive Working Families Party director Maurice Mitchell pushed back hard on the moderate diagnosis, calling it a misreading: “There is a populist insurgency taking place in this country... they’re missing a point of view” — reflecting a genuine, unresolved strategic disagreement inside the party heading into mIdterms.
Republicans in Disrepute
Tucker Carlson unveils 10-point manifesto amid third-party speculation (Axios)
Tucker Carlson unveiled a 10-point “manifesto” via livestream, stopping short of formally announcing a third party but framing it as the foundation for “whatever comes next” — following weekend reports he hosted MAGA dissidents at his Maine home who urged him to run in 2028.
The platform blends familiar populist themes (rebuilding manufacturing, opening JFK/9/11 records, ending drug overuse) with sharper breaks from Trump: apologizing for civilian deaths abroad, reversing the “Department of War” rebrand, and halting aid to Israel over what Carlson calls genocide.
Carlson accused Israel of pushing the US into the Iran war through “bribery or threat or both” and called foreign lobbying and corporate influence forms of “slavery” — reflecting the same Israel-skeptic, anti-war grievances driving this breakaway faction.
The loose coalition includes Marjorie Taylor Greene, Rep. Thomas Massie, and Joe Kent, who resigned as Trump’s counterterrorism chief in March specifically to protest the Iran war.
The White House dismissed the group as “an embarrassing collection of mostly whiny turncoats” who “overestimate their influence,” reaffirming Trump as the party’s “unequivocal leader” — signaling no serious concern from the administration, at least publicly.
As Max Miller allegations intensify, Republicans keep their distance (Roll Call)
Rep. Max Miller denied domestic abuse allegations from ex-wife Emily Moreno in a weekend livestream, calling one incident — pouring hot water on her — “horseplay,” while releasing attorney-prepared documents he says disprove the claims.
The allegations include Moreno telling police she couldn’t rule out Miller’s involvement in their young daughter’s broken collarbone, per Mother Jones reporting; Moreno’s spokesperson called Miller’s denial video a “lie-filled rant.”
The Democratic Women’s Caucus has called for a formal House Ethics Committee investigation, calling the allegations “deeply disturbing.” Republicans are split on this point: Speaker Johnson defended the existing process without commenting on the underlying claims, while GOP Women’s Caucus chair Kat Cammack said the allegations are serious but argued Ethics shouldn’t become “a one-stop shop” for personal conduct unrelated to a member’s official role.
The most notable break from GOP silence came from Moreno’s own father, Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who wrote that Miller “fails” basic character standards for office and “should not serve in the House” — a rare direct Republican condemnation.
Miller faces an August 5 deadline under Ohio law to withdraw and trigger a special primary, but says he’s staying in the race; Democrats see the Cleveland-area seat, which Trump carried by 11 points, as newly competitive given the controversy, though Inside Elections still rates it Likely Republican.
US House ethics panel recommends censure for Republican Chuck Edwards (Guardian)
The bipartisan House Ethics Committee recommended censuring Rep. Chuck Edwards after finding he “fostered a hostile work environment and engaged in sexual harassment,” singling out two young female staffers for gifts, late-night texts, and unwanted personal attention that made them and coworkers uncomfortable.
Documented behavior included buying flowers, planning elaborate trips (including a Las Vegas visit paid for after one staffer had already left his office), texting “personal sentiments” late at night, and getting “very angry” when a senior staffer raised concerns on the women’s behalf.
The committee found no evidence of sexual activity or explicit advances, but concluded Edwards violated House conduct rules against harassment — and noted he “has not acknowledged or taken responsibility for the harm he caused.”
Edwards’s campaign rejected the findings entirely, claiming they “completely exonerate” him and accusing committee staff of writing “their own rules” inconsistent with House precedent.
The timing compounds Edwards’s political vulnerability — Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved his western North Carolina race to a “toss-up,” and Democratic opponent Jamie Ager responded to the report saying “we deserve leaders with the moral character western North Carolina can be proud of.”
North Carolina congressman Edwards quits reelection bid after committee finds inappropriate conduct (AP)
Rep. Chuck Edwards withdrew from his reelection bid two days after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure — he’ll finish his current term but won’t seek another, citing “much prayer and reflection.”
Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC) said Edwards “did the right thing” by stepping aside, while his spokesperson noted Edwards was already trailing in the polls before the ethics report came out — though he declined to say whether Budd personally pushed Edwards to withdraw.
North Carolina’s GOP executive committee will meet next week to pick a new nominee for the swing 11th District, which includes progressive Asheville — election analysts had already shifted the race from favoring Republicans to more competitive even before Edwards dropped out, and Democrats have nominated farmer Jamie Ager to contest it.
McConnell released from rehab center 50+ days after hospitalization (Louisville Courier-Journal)
McConnell was discharged from a rehab center 50+ days after his June 14 hospitalization, and will continue recovering at home with intensive physical therapy while remotely engaging on Senate business — no timeline given for his return to Congress.
His hospitalization stemmed from a fall causing brief loss of consciousness, followed by a mild case of pneumonia contracted in the hospital; he has longstanding complications from childhood polio.
Gov. Andy Beshear’s office criticized the lack of transparency, saying McConnell “shouldn’t have left the American people in the dark for the last two months” and that he’s omitted “the most important people of all — the people of Kentucky” from his stated priorities.
His absence has stalled Senate committee work, including the farm bill — he can vote by proxy on amendments but not to pass bills out of committee, creating gridlock on measures lacking bipartisan support.
McConnell isn’t seeking reelection; Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Rep. Andy Barr are already campaigning for his seat ahead of the November 3 general election.
Garten announces Indiana Senate leadership bid (ICC)
Sen. Chris Garten officially launched his bid for Senate president pro tem, days after Bray announced he wouldn’t seek another term amid Trump-driven redistricting fallout — Garten resigned as majority floor leader in June, citing misalignment with Bray’s leadership direction.
Garten and Bray split on the actual redistricting vote (Garten backed Trump’s push, Bray opposed it), but otherwise voted similarly on most issues — meaning this leadership fight is less about broad ideology and more specifically about loyalty to Trump’s redistricting demands.
Garten named Sen. Eric Koch as his pick for majority floor leader if he wins — Koch isn’t on the ballot this year and has served in the Senate since 2016 after 14 years in the House.
Separately, Sen. Scott Baldwin launched a bid for caucus chair, a post left vacant after the incumbent lost his primary in May — Baldwin framed his campaign around rebuilding trust and caucus unity following “a demanding political season.”
The actual leadership vote won’t happen until November, after Senate Republicans are chosen in the general election — leaving room for additional candidates to enter either race in the meantime.
Health & Education
Medicaid Changes
Indiana Medicaid ‘back in black’ (ICC)
FSSA returned $310 million to the general fund this year, but enrollment fell 23% while total expenditures dropped just 2% — meaning the remaining enrollees, disproportionately the sickest Hoosiers, cost far more per person, undercutting the “savings” framing.
Roob’s own data shows this directly: HIP members who left the program in 2025 cost the state an average of $513/month, compared to $885/month for those who stayed and $710/month for new entrants — evidence that coverage is concentrating around costlier, sicker patients as healthier members get dropped.
Indiana ranked third nationally for improper Medicaid expansion enrollments per a Paragon Health Institute report Roob cited, though the piece doesn’t specify what portion of the 23% enrollment drop reflects genuine ineligibility versus the procedural closures documented in earlier Capital Chronicle reporting.
Program costs remain on a steep upward trajectory regardless: HIP spending is projected to hit $6.4 billion by fiscal 2027 (up from $2.9 billion in 2017), and long-term/in-home elder care costs are projected to nearly triple to $10.9 billion — prompting Roob’s “fiscal chronic illness” framing and a stated 2% growth target.
FSSA is rolling out new cost-cutting measures including AI-based Medicaid claims analysis with Oracle and CMS, expanded dual Medicare-Medicaid enrollment for seniors, and upcoming HIP work requirements — the same work requirements advocates have separately warned could deepen the procedural coverage losses already documented.
More than numbers: Inside Indiana’s Medicaid enrollment decline (ICC)
Indiana’s Medicaid enrollment fell 18.5% in one year — from 1,856,272 to 1,512,713 — among the steepest drops nationally, with the losses driven overwhelmingly by procedural “noncompliance” closures rather than actual ineligibility determinations.
In June 2026, of 110,382 people due for renewal, only 20,834 were renewed, 38,732 were closed for noncompliance (missed paperwork/deadlines), and just 7,875 were found actually ineligible — a pattern that held across multiple 2025-2026 renewal cycles.
Automatic “ex parte” renewals — which verify eligibility using existing government records instead of requiring paperwork — collapsed from roughly 49,000-57,000 monthly to just 11,201 in March 2026, suggesting the state scaled back a mechanism that prevents unnecessary coverage loss.
The human toll is concrete: Merrillville resident Tyree Collins lost coverage after missing a paperwork deadline he says he never knew about, forcing him to drive three hours to a free clinic in Terre Haute for medication; advocates say many recipients never see renewal notices due to mail, portal, or communication breakdowns.
Hospitals are absorbing the fallout — Eskenazi Health saw uninsured ER visits rise 73% since April 2025, statewide ER visits rose 16.8% (versus 1.4% nationally), and Indiana Hospital Association president Scott Tittle warns rising uncompensated care is straining hospitals “already operating on thin or negative margins.” Child enrollment also fell 20%, the steepest percentage drop in the country.
More potential upheaval awaits Indiana Medicaid as work requirements, new rules arrive (ICC)
Starting January 2027, HIP enrollees face eligibility redeterminations every six months (down from annual) plus new work/community engagement requirements — 80 hours/month of work, training, or similar activity — with compliance reviewed twice yearly and a lookback period meaning many must start complying by October 2026.
FSSA cites a Paragon Health Institute finding that 47% of Indiana’s 2024 expansion enrollees were “improperly enrolled,” but advocates counter that most HIP members already work — the real risk is people losing coverage not from ineligibility but from failing to properly document and report it.
Awareness is strikingly low: a spring survey found 47.4% of Indiana Medicaid enrollees didn’t know work requirements were coming, and 42.1% said they’d ration medications if they lost coverage. Nationally, over half of beneficiaries said their state provided no information about the changes.
Exemptions exist for children, pregnant women, seniors, and people with disabilities, but KFF’s Jennifer Tolbert warns the “medically frail” exemption often requires documentation state databases don’t have — meaning even exempt people could lose coverage through paperwork failures alone.
Providers warn of a “one step forward, two steps back” cycle: Dr. Amy Hale described patients with well-controlled chronic conditions losing coverage, going untreated, then returning in crisis — undermining the preventive care that keeps costs and ER usage down in the first place.
38 Indiana school districts to seek property tax referendums this fall (ICC)
38 Indiana school districts will place property tax referendums on the November ballot totaling roughly $500 million — a record number, though below the 45-100 districts advocates had projected under a new law limiting referendums to once every two years.
Most referendums (28 of 38) aim to maintain existing operating levies rather than expand them, with 17 districts seeking early renewals before their current levies expire and can’t be renewed until 2028; only about 10 districts are pursuing referendums for the first time.
SEA 1’s property tax changes are projected to cost Indiana public schools $744 million through 2028, and a coalition survey found most superintendents are already considering staff cuts, deferred maintenance, or referendums — some districts have already announced layoffs.
Rep. Gregory Porter is separately pushing the State Board of Finance to return $98 million to K-12 tuition support from the state’s nearly $4 billion general fund reserve, arguing “children are our future, a future Indiana’s not properly funding” while schools cut staff amid record reserves.
