SUMMARY:
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This week, Scott is joined by Sharon Wight and Reece Axel-Adams for a show that tracks a steady slide toward authoritarianism at home and abroad. They open with climate chaos on both coasts and a Supreme Court case testing whether fossil fuel companies can be held liable for climate damage, then turn to the staggering cost of the Iran war, layered against Trump’s own threats to let Iran “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego, a new diesel supply agreement with Putin, and a separate Russian asset deal that stands to enrich Trump-linked oligarchs. A public-health segment covers a plague scare in Russia and a worsening measles crisis at home, both made scarier by a federal government actively undermining trust in vaccines and global health cooperation. The show then digs into a wave of state propaganda — taxpayer-funded political ads, a politicized FBI, and a plan to livestream a military execution — before covering ICE’s escalating violence, including a shooting of an immigrant with a child in the car, and Trump’s incitement against Somali communities in Minnesota, which the hosts frame as deliberate race-baiting ahead of the midterms. Voting and polling news suggests a strong Democratic environment nationally, even as the hosts worry about interference and legitimacy. Locally, the conversation covers anti-trans attack ads in the Spartz-Ford congressional race, a chaotic Indiana Secretary of State contest, a shoplifting scandal engulfing a longtime state senator, and two statewide ballot questions on bail and judicial residency. They close by connecting youth-led protest movements in France, Spain, and India to the Cornell case back home, asking whether Americans are ready to take their own anger to the streets.
Guest info:
Sharon Wight: https://www.electsharonwight.com/
Reece Axel-Adams: https://reecespeace.substack.com/
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
00:00:33 - Opening: Panelist Welcomes and Housekeeping
00:04:36 - Climate: Hurricane Isaias, Tropical Storm Rachel, and the Supreme Court Climate Suit
00:12:24 - Iran War: Aircraft Losses and the Fairford Bomber Pullout
00:19:24 - The USS Lincoln’s Homecoming and “Let Them Hit LA, SD”
00:25:39 - Russia: The Diesel Deal, Lukoil, and Trump’s Oligarch Envy
00:32:17 - Public Health: Russia’s Plague Scare, the Measles Surge, and RFK Jr.’s Antivax Push
00:42:04 - Propaganda: Taxpayer-Funded Ads, Kash Patel’s FBI, and the Fort Hood Firing Squad
00:51:38 - ICE-Immigration: The Stelson Smear and the Marble Hill Shooting
00:57:59 - Trump’s Minnesota “Race War” and the Insurrection Act
01:06:11 - Voting: Maricopa’s Ballot Error and Hegseth’s Election “Defense” and Midterm Polling
01:15:45 - Indiana Campaigns: Spartz-Ford and the Anti-Trans Ad Wars
01:25:53 - Secretary of State: Beau Bayh’s “More Jesus” Moment and the SoS Debate
01:34:13 - State Legislature: Ron Alting’s Shoplifting Scandal
01:44:06 - Indiana Ballot Questions: Bail and Judicial Residency
01:54:01 - Youth Protests: France, Spain, India, and Cornell
01:56:27 - Wrap-Up: Can America Take to the Streets?
02:04:40 - Sign-Off
NOTES:
Climate
Isaias makes landfall as hurricane, hammering US Gulf Coast with powerful winds, dangerous flooding (AP)
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the Atlantic season, made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday with 105 mph winds. It was downgraded below hurricane strength by early Saturday.
More than 664,000 customers in Florida and Alabama lost power, with flooded roads, downed trees and power lines across the Panhandle and around Mobile. Some counties temporarily suspended emergency response because conditions were too dangerous.
Forecasters warned of 3 to 5-foot storm surge and 4 to 8 inches of rain from southern Alabama to southwest Georgia, with flooding threats spreading to the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast into Monday.
Florida deployed about 5,000 National Guard members. Trump said the storm was “under control” and canceled plans to attend Saturday’s Georgia–Alabama football game.
It’s the first hurricane to hit the eastern US since Milton in 2024. It likely missed major oil hubs, but refinery power outages could still push fuel prices up.
Tropical Storm Rachel is behaving in unusual ways. What that means for SoCal this weekend (LA Times)
Tropical Storm Rachel could make landfall in northern Baja California or San Diego County as early as Saturday night, only the third storm to reach California at tropical-storm strength in the modern record. San Diego County is under a rare tropical storm watch, only the second ever issued in California.
Storms normally weaken in California’s cool waters, but El Niño and a marine heat wave have pushed ocean temperatures 10 to 13 degrees above normal, which climate scientist Daniel Swain called “record warm, and I do mean record warm.”
Tides are already running up to 17 inches above predictions, flooding Laguna Beach, Newport Beach and Long Beach. Newport Beach declared a local emergency, and Long Beach ordered some evacuations.
Forecasters see a 40% chance of excessive rainfall and flash flooding in parts of San Diego County and the inland deserts.
NOAA now gives this El Niño an 83% chance of being the strongest on record. Two of the four previous “very strong” El Niños dumped more than 30 inches of rain on downtown LA.
Climate change supercharged the warm Gulf waters fueling Hurricane Isaias (Climate Central)
Hurricane Isaias rapidly intensified over the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening from a tropical storm to a major Category 3 hurricane in less than 48 hours.
It strengthened over waters above 88°F, about 2.4°F warmer than they’d be without climate change. Climate Central says those temperatures were made up to 600 times more likely by human-caused warming.
Climate change is forecast to add 7 mph to Isaias’ maximum sustained winds, and has raised Gulf Coast sea levels about 6.5 inches since 1900, giving storm surge a higher starting point.
Court sends mixed signals on whether it will allow state-tort suits seeking to hold energy companies liable for climate change to go forward (SCOTUSblog)
`The Supreme Court opened its term hearing Boulder, Colorado’s eight-year-old lawsuit seeking to make Suncor and ExxonMobil pay climate-related costs, alleging they deceived the public about climate change.
The companies, backed by the Trump administration, argue federal law bars state-court climate suits. With Justice Alito recused, a 4-4 tie would let Boulder’s case proceed.
Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kagan seemed skeptical of the companies. Kagan compared the case to the 1990s tobacco suits and opioid litigation.
Justice Kavanaugh was most sympathetic to the companies, citing precedent that interstate pollution is “a matter for federal law,” while Justices Thomas and Barrett pressed Boulder on where its theory would end.
The companies’ lawyer warned the theory would let Boulder sue him “for refilling my car.” Boulder argues it’s simply asking polluters to pay for some of the damage they cause.
Iran War
US has lost or sustained damage to 81 military aircraft worth up to $3.3 billion in Iran war, congressional report says (CNN)
A Congressional Research Service report says 81 US military aircraft have been destroyed or damaged in the Iran war, worth $1.9 billion to $3.3 billion. Some of the damaged ones have since returned to service.
MQ-9 Reaper drones account for more than half the losses, but the toll also includes an F-35A and an E-3 Sentry radar plane, one of a limited fleet of aging planes that are hard to replace.
The war’s total cost is at least $45 billion, sources told CNN, not counting damage to US bases.
CRS says Pentagon reporting on losses has been vague, and questions whether Congress is getting enough information to judge the damage.
The report also warns the losses could create gaps in US capabilities in other regions and strain replacement production and arms sales to allies.
Potential Iranian Drone Attack Led to Exit of U.S. Aircraft From British Air Base (NYT)
The US abruptly pulled all 12 B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in England after intelligence about a possible drone attack ordered by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, part of what officials describe as a plot to destroy aircraft and kill American personnel.
Officials say the plot was loosely modeled on Ukraine’s 2025 attack that smuggled drones into Russia on trucks and destroyed bombers on runways.
The withdrawal was so rushed that some bombers left while refueling aircraft were still being deployed to support them.
It follows the arrest of five men in white vans near the base on Sept. 27, released on bail when no explosives were found, and a British-Iranian dual national’s arrest on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Iran denies involvement.
Vance said the move was made “out of an abundance of caution,” and Israel has warned Germany that US bases there, including Ramstein, also face heightened risk.
Trump promises not to attack Iran before November’s US midterms (Guardian)
Trump pledged on Truth Social that the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” citing “productive discussions” with Tehran. He didn’t say what happens after Nov. 3.
He also claimed 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one night, none to or from Iran. The figure couldn’t be independently verified.
His stance has shifted: in early September he said he was “not affected by the election,” then a week later predicted the war would end almost as soon as voting was over.
WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump the war could last through the rest of his presidency.
The long-deployed USS Lincoln returns home to San Diego Bay (NPR)
The USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego after a 322-day Iran war deployment, including a record 265 straight days at sea. Among those returning were 122 fathers meeting babies born while they were gone.
Families described months of worry over reports of food shortages, limited showers and deteriorating crew mental health. The Navy told lawmakers eight sailors attempted suicide during the deployment.
The Navy initially downplayed the problems before acknowledging some, and Trump said in August the deployment was “not nearly long enough.”
Hegseth awarded the crew the Presidential Unit Citation and pushed back on efforts to make the Lincoln “a symbol of dysfunction or a symbol of low morale.”
The strike group flew nearly 3,700 combat missions, launched 450 Tomahawk missiles and sank 64 Iranian warships.
“Let Them Hit LA, SD”
Trump suggests letting Iran ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego at campaign rally (LA Times)
At a Nebraska campaign rally, Trump said war-driven costs are “a little bit high” but “a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe. They can take out a city, let ’em take out Los Angeles, let ’em take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay.” The crowd cheered.
Gov. Gavin Newsom called Trump “deranged and dangerous” and said California activated its state operations center, citing increased cyber activity the next morning.
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria responded: “We are not expendable. And we are never a ‘small price to pay.’”
Follow-up: White House aide: Trump did not call for attacks on US cities but explained how he’s preventing them (AP)
White House communications director Steven Cheung called the reaction a “media freakout,” saying Trump meant US cities would have been threatened “if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped,” and claiming Iran “has no nuclear, no navy, no air force, and no money.”
Jim Desmond, the GOP congressional nominee in a San Diego-area district, sided with critics: “I served to protect Americans, not write off American cities as an acceptable price of war.”
AP notes Trump made the remarks while discussing the war and high gas prices, which have become a midterm liability for Republicans.
It fits a pattern of Trump attacking Democratic-leaning cities on the campaign trail. He recently called North Carolina’s cities “blood-soaked killing fields,” though the state’s violent crime rate ranks in the middle third nationally.
Trump doubles down on ‘let them hit’ LA, San Diego comment before adding he won’t let scenario play out (FOX11 LA)
At a San Antonio rally two days later, Trump revisited the remark: “Let them hit San Diego. Let them hit Los Angeles, and you want to see some bad things happen. You want to see a country that would be in free fall.”
He then added: “We protect our cities, we protect our country. We’re not letting that happen.”
LA Mayor Karen Bass said she’s pushing lawmakers for a congressional investigation, questioning why a president “whose number one job is to protect and defend the American people” would say it.
Bass said invoking an attack on LA is especially irresponsible after the city’s experience last year [wildfires? ICE operations? The article didn’t clarify].
Russia
Trump strikes deal with Putin to supply Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets (CNBC)
Diesel prices have surged worldwide as Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries forced Moscow to ban exports, while Iran and the Houthis have hit Middle East refineries.
Trump says Putin agreed in a phone call to supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to global markets, starting with 300,000 tons immediately. Treasury waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027.
Trump faces midterm pressure in farm states like Iowa, and floated a diesel export ban last month before backing off after industry warned it would raise gas prices.
Earlier this week, Trump signed an executive order letting truckers use red-dyed off-road diesel, which is tax-exempt and normally restricted to farm and construction equipment, on highways without federal penalties. The order only defers the tax, leaving truckers unsure whether they’ll owe it later.
Zelenskyy condemned the deal: “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace,” warning that letting Russia sell fuel is “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.”
Zelenskyy furious as Trump announces deal to buy Russian diesel (Guardian)
Zelenskyy called the deal “absolutely terrible,” telling Axios it “looks like a happy birthday present for Putin,” who turned 74 this week.
Democrats say it undercuts a sanctions law Trump signed just last month targeting Russian oil revenue. GOP Rep. Don Bacon called propping up “Putin’s war economy” “morally wrong.”
Trump has pressed Zelenskyy to stop striking Russian refineries. Zelenskyy refuses unless Russia agrees to stop hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Russia is believed to be giving Iran satellite intelligence on US forces’ locations, plus drone parts and ammunition.
Trump announced it while his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting Ukrainian and European officials in Miami on ending the war. Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s negotiators had been “used as a smokescreen for the deal.”
U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump Allies (NYT)
US-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war have expanded to include a multibillion-dollar sale of Lukoil’s international oil assets. Putin raised it with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the Kremlin on Sept. 5.
The leading bidder group includes Trump donor Todd Boehly, who has given $2 million to Trump causes, and Qatari brothers partnering with Kushner and Ivanka Trump on a luxury resort in Albania.
Another major stakeholder is a fund controlled by the UAE’s Sheikh Tahnoon, whose affiliate bought $2 billion in the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto, co-founded by Witkoff, and who is a major investor in Kushner’s private equity firm.
US approval would lift sanctions on the assets, instantly raising their value. There’s no indication Witkoff or Kushner personally profit, though a former DOJ ethics adviser called it “an alarming and very concerning set of entanglements.”
The White House, not Treasury’s sanctions office, is effectively making the call, while the US government itself would take a stake through its overseas development finance agency.
Public Health
Russia plays down plague fears and denies lab accident, says scientist died of “pneumonia of unknown origin” (CBS)
A 28-year-old scientist at Siberia’s Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute died of severe pneumonia Oct. 2, after Russian media reported she broke a test tube containing pneumonic plague bacteria in late September.
Officials have walked back early statements. The regional head who first said she died of plague later added “possibly,” and a local warning to avoid the town where she was hospitalized was deleted within two hours.
Russia’s health watchdog denies any lab accident, attributes her death to “pneumonia of unknown origin,” and says testing of nearly 200 contacts found no dangerous pathogens.
Pneumonic plague, which attacks the lungs, can spread person to person, unlike bubonic plague. The WHO says the public risk appears low.
Rubio called it not “cause for alarm, but... cause for focus,” citing very limited US-Russia travel.
The Russian ‘lab leak’ and America’s great weakness (Independent)
The bigger worry, author Holly Baxter argues, is the Trump administration’s weakened ability to respond: the US formally left the WHO in January, cutting off the main channel for global disease information-sharing used during COVID.
A microbiologist says pneumonic plague is treatable with antibiotics if caught early and far less transmissible than COVID, but that “an awful lot must have gone wrong” for a worker to be infected as reported.
Local reports say the institute is locked down with about 60 people inside. Details have trickled out through local media despite Russian officials’ contradictory statements.
Baxter says US scientists told her Trump’s NIH disruptions, research cuts and visa restrictions have slowed their work so much they expect China to become the world leader in biomedical research, bringing ally Russia along.
US surpasses 4,000 measles cases with infections confirmed in 45 states: CDC (ABC)
US measles cases have topped 4,000 this year across 45 states and DC, breaking records for the second straight year. Most cases are among children and teens, and about 1 in 10 kids under 5 has been hospitalized.
About 95% of cases are among people who are unvaccinated or whose status is unknown. Two doses of the MMR vaccine are 97% effective.
Kindergarten MMR vaccination fell to 92.4% last school year, down from 95.2% before the pandemic.
Experts say the US is likely to lose the measles elimination status it earned in 2000, citing declining vaccination, lost trust in public health institutions and unclear federal guidance.
One specialist says the true case count is likely much higher, since the deaths and hospitalizations point to many untested infections.
Pennsylvania confirms more than 1,000 measles cases (CIDRAP)
Pennsylvania has topped 1,000 measles cases this year, the first state to pass that mark in 35 years. More than 99% of cases are unvaccinated, and nearly 20% have been hospitalized.
All five people who died were unvaccinated: two infants, a woman with leukemia on chemotherapy, a woman with asthma and COPD, and an 18-year-old who developed a rare, deadly brain complication.
Unusually, most cases are adults ages 25 to 49, and the Amish community has been hit hard. Only 32% of cases are children.
CHOP’s Paul Offit says the death toll implies 5,000 or more actual cases, and expects the US to lose its elimination status next month: “Measles is now endemic in the United States.”
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state disaster emergency over 108 cases in rural areas near Pennsylvania.
Indiana confirms 28 measles cases statewide as health officials warn of continued spread (Marshall Co. Post)
The Indiana Department of Health has confirmed 28 measles cases statewide this year and expects the virus to keep spreading in the coming weeks.
Wayne County has the most cases (7), followed by Switzerland (6), Parke (4), and LaGrange and Adams (3 each), with single cases in Allen, DeKalb, Miami, Ohio and Randolph counties.
Allen County health officials issued an exposure warning for the Fort Wayne Zoo.
Up to 9 in 10 unprotected people near an infected person will catch measles, and the virus can linger in the air for two hours.
The CDC advises anyone vaccinated between 1963 and 1968 with the older inactivated vaccine, or an unknown type, to get at least one dose of the current MMR vaccine.
RFK Jr. unveils sweeping federal initiative to find evidence of vaccine injuries (Ars Technica)
RFK Jr.’s HHS launched an agency-wide initiative focused on vaccine injuries, including a new NIH clinic dedicated to patients with health problems after vaccination. Kennedy attended its ribbon-cutting Oct. 5 without announcing it.
HHS also proposes paying doctors to file reports to VAERS, the federal system where anyone can submit unverified claims of vaccine reactions. CDC reviews find most reports aren’t actually caused by vaccines.
Anti-vaccine advocates, especially those suing over alleged injuries, routinely cite unvetted VAERS reports as proof vaccines are dangerous.
HHS will also require vaccine injuries to be logged in electronic health records, and CDC awarded a nearly $1 million contract to a Christian tech company to overhaul VAERS.
Protect Our Care’s Brad Woodhouse said Kennedy “wants to bribe doctors to claim they see vaccine harm without proof.”
Propaganda
Trump says his super PAC will start paying for controversial taxpayer-funded ads (CBS)
Since late September, taxpayer-funded ads stamped “Paid for by the U.S. Government” have aired nationwide, featuring Trump vowing to “defeat communism, socialism and Marxism in America” and touting the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The White House insists they’re public service announcements.
After weeks of bipartisan backlash, Trump said he’ll pay for his pro-Trump ads with money from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., instead of taxpayer funds.
Contracting records show DHS paid an ad agency $20 million for a “National Media Campaign,” after OMB gave Customs and Border Protection $20 million for “OBBB Commemorative Events.”
Shifting the ads to MAGA Inc. taps a war chest of over $400 million that many Republicans hoped would go to battleground races, including Texas’ tight Paxton-Talarico Senate contest.
Trump won’t reimburse taxpayers for campaign-style PSAs (Wash. Examiner)
The White House confirmed Trump won’t reimburse taxpayers for the $20 million-plus already spent on the ads: “The President’s Truth was not referring to reimbursement.”
MAGA Inc. confirmed it will pay only for future ads.
In his Truth Social post, Trump called using public money “a rather standard thing to do,” blaming “the Radical Left” for the backlash.
Vance defended the ads, comparing them to the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act ads. Those, unlike these, promoted a specific program, not the president himself.
Why the Hell Is Kash Patel’s FBI Making Campaign Ads? (TNR)
The FBI posted a two-minute video attacking “democratic socialist leaders” who called to defund the police, featuring Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed weeks before the election, alongside Kamala Harris, AOC, Cori Bush and Ilhan Omar.
The video claims defunding led to “a complete failure” in cities, though Brennan Center research shows violent crime has been declining for years.
It also praised Director Kash Patel’s leadership and touted a surge in violent-crime arrests. Patel has reportedly counted arrests made by other agencies toward those numbers.
Federal law (The Hatch Act) bars using government funds for campaign purposes, partisan messaging or propaganda.
The video comes on top of the White House’s campaign-style ads: TNR counts at least 15, costing taxpayers at least $5.6 million, funded with money diverted from Customs and Border Protection.
Patel boasts about success rate on FBI’s Most Wanted list, but there’s a catch (MaddowBlog)
FBI Director Kash Patel boasted that his FBI has captured all ten of the Ten Most Wanted fugitives, “2.5 times” as many as in the previous four years, and repeated the claim on Hannity.
Per MS NOW’s reporting, the FBI has added some fugitives to the list just hours or days before arresting them. In one case, agents caught a suspect one hour and 13 minutes after he was listed.
Half a dozen law enforcement sources say Patel’s FBI adopted new policies that inflate arrest numbers and overstate its progress against crime.
One FBI official said: “They are literally just nominating people they’re about to arrest... Gone are the days of nominating the worst of the worst.” The FBI denies the reporting.
Pentagon to livestream firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter (NPR)
The Pentagon confirmed Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan’s Dec. 3 firing squad execution “will be livestreamed.” Hegseth says the public needs to “understand that there’s serious consequences.”
It would be the first public US execution in nearly a century and the first ever livestreamed. The last, the 1936 hanging of Rainey Bethea in Kentucky, drew 20,000 spectators in a picnic-like atmosphere and a backlash that ended public executions.
“Public executions have typically been held in authoritarian countries to instill fear in the population,” said the Death Penalty Information Center’s Robin Maher.
Backlash crossed party lines. GOP Sen. Thom Tillis called a livestream “beyond disgusting,” the Catholic bishops called it “barbaric,” and Vance said he wouldn’t watch.
Hasan could still delay the execution for years with a federal habeas appeal, and outside groups could challenge the livestream.
ICE-Immigration
Homeland Security targets Democratic campaign after ICE arrest in Pennsylvania (AP)
The watchdog group CREW filed a Hatch Act complaint, saying it had never seen a law enforcement agency “go out of its way” to tie an arrest to a campaign.
A DHS press release on the ICE arrest of a Nigerian man for indecent exposure claimed he worked for Janelle Stelson, the Democrat challenging Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s battleground 10th District.
ICE’s deputy director said it was “unbelievable that Janelle Stelson would employ an illegal alien... let alone a pervert.” DHS sourced the connection to a news report quoting a conservative activist.
Stelson’s campaign says it never heard of him, and campaign finance reports show no payments to him. The only link is that police found Stelson fliers in his car, and it’s unclear whether he canvassed for another group.
The man pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct. DHS says he overstayed a 2017 visa, though he received deferred action under the Biden administration in 2021.
NY Shooting
ICE Agent Shoots Man in New York City (NYT)
An ICE agent fired seven rounds into a car in Manhattan’s Marble Hill neighborhood, wounding 28-year-old Oscar Belgal in the neck while a 5-year-old boy, believed to be his son, sat in the back seat. The child wasn’t physically hurt.
DHS says Belgal is an undocumented Dominican immigrant with a grand larceny conviction, but hasn’t said why the agent fired or whether he knew a child was inside.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani said he spent two hours on the phone with Trump and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin trying to secure Belgal’s release, but agents took him from the hospital in an unmarked vehicle. Gov. Hochul is demanding body-camera footage be released.
It appears to be the first ICE shooting in New York City since 2020. At least two dozen people have been shot at by immigration agents since Trump took office, and six have been killed, including three US citizens.
Protesters gathered at the scene and outside the hospital, where scuffles with police led to at least one arrest.
‘Get ICE out’: Mamdani calls Trump after feds shoot man near child in NYC (USA Today)
Mamdani called the shooting “unconscionable” and demanded Trump halt all ICE enforcement in the city: “Get ICE out of our neighborhoods. Get ICE out of our hospitals. Get ICE off our streets. Get ICE away from our children.”
DHS escalated its claims, alleging Belgal has multiple prior arrests and ties to the Trinitarios gang. NYPD’s commissioner cited only a grand larceny conviction and a pending drug case, and DHS’s statement never mentioned the child in the car.
DHS blamed “Democrat sanctuary policies” for releasing Belgal after a 2023 arrest, a month after DHS Secretary Mullin vowed enforcement would continue as long as Hochul and Mamdani resisted.
Days before the shooting, eight local officials asked the Target on the same street to stop letting ICE use its parking lot as a staging area. Target denies any agreement with ICE.
ICE officers shot a man in New York because they believed they were in danger, official says (AP)
NYPD footage shows two plainclothes immigration officers running up to the parked car with guns drawn, one bashing the window with his gun barrel before the driver pulls away. The shooting itself wasn’t captured, and the videos don’t settle whether it was justified.
ICE’s enforcement chief says the driver refused to exit, rammed two government vehicles, and officers “believing that their life... [was] in danger” opened fire. Officials say they didn’t know the child was in the car.
ICE has invoked “weaponization” of vehicles to justify other shootings, but video has sometimes undercut those claims. Agents have fired during more than a dozen vehicle stops since last year, killing at least four people.
The man is being held in a Brooklyn federal jail with the bullet still in his body. A judge temporarily barred his deportation. “You’re not supposed to get shot in your car with your child sitting in the back. Period,” his lawyer said.
DHS Secretary Mullin promised to release ICE body camera footage but wouldn’t say when, and the Bronx DA has opened an investigation.
Trump accused of trying to start a ‘race war’ with threats to Somali communities in Minnesota (Independent)
Trump posted that Minnesota “is being taken over by Somali Immigrants” with “Violence, Murder, and Mayhem all over the State,” urging residents: “Fight back Minnesota, fight back!”
He called Walz “an incompetent thief” and told state leaders to “ask for Federal help — and leave the rest to us!”
Walz called the post “deranged,” and Minnesota’s CAIR chapter called it “an implicit call for violence against an entire community.” The Minneapolis–St. Paul area’s roughly 80,000 Somali Americans are overwhelmingly legal residents or citizens.
The post followed shootings that police tied to Somali gangs and federal charges this week against a Somali American man accused of plotting an attack on the Mall of America. GOP Rep. Tom Emmer called Somali immigrants “enemy combatants” on Fox Business.
Critics accuse Trump of trying to ignite a “race war” as his polls sink ahead of the midterms. An American Immigration Council fellow said he’s “deliberately inciting race hatred,” and a Somali-born Minneapolis council member warned that when a president tells people to “fight back” while singling out a community, “those words carry consequences.”
Voting
Trump criticizes election officials in Arizona’s Maricopa County over error affecting 3,000 ballots (AP)
Trump attacked Arizona’s Maricopa County after a vendor mistakenly mailed 3,126 early ballots six days ahead of schedule, saying officials should “be ashamed of themselves.” “Now they’re saying it was an error,” he said. “Maricopa is a very, very dishonest county.”
The ballots went to the correct voters and remain valid. That’s about 0.1% of the county’s 2.5 million registered voters.
The vendor, Runbeck Election Services, took full blame: “It was pure accident, just a human error.” The county recorder’s office that announced it is run by Republican Justin Heap.
Maricopa has long been a target of election conspiracy theories, including Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
From Sept 28: Pete Hegseth Orders Midterm Election Defense. Pentagon Won’t Explain What’s New (Military.com)
Hegseth claims he’s ordering military cyber and intelligence agencies to protect the midterms from foreign interference, calling it a “no-fail mission.” Asked what that actually means, the Pentagon refused to explain: “We have nothing to provide outside the release and the memo.”
The memo names no new staff, money or deadlines, so it’s unclear what, if anything, it adds beyond giving the military a bigger, vaguer role in elections.
The administration claims to be protecting elections while proposing to eliminate CISA’s election security program, the civilian office that actually helps states secure their systems.
Cyber Command and the NSA also defended the 2020 election, which Trump still insists was stolen, raising the question of whether he’d accept their work this time if he doesn’t like the result.
Federal law bars troops at polling places and prohibits military interference with voters or election officials. Hegseth hasn’t said how his directive respects those limits.
Democratic Support Hits Highest Level Since Obama’s First Term: Poll (Newsweek)
Gallup finds 50% of Americans identify as or lean Democratic versus 39% Republican, the Democrats’ highest level since 2009 in Obama’s first term. Republicans led 47% to 43% at the end of 2024.
Experts say it reflects voters souring on Trump and the GOP, not a surge of love for Democrats. One called it proof of “how toxic the Republican brand has become” with independents and swing voters.
Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.3 points, per RealClearPolling, compared with 7.2 points at this point in 2018, when they gained 41 House seats.
One election model gives Democrats an 87% chance of winning the House and 73% for the Senate.
Pollsters caution that past polls have underestimated Republicans, and turning sentiment into turnout remains the challenge. The RNC says national polls “always underestimate support for Republicans.”
Indiana Campaigns
Anti-Trans Ads: All Republicans Have Got
Spartz’s House district on new list of races shifting toward Democrats. How close is it? (IndyStar)
The Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races toward Democrats, including Indiana’s 5th District, which moved from “Solid R” to “Likely R.” Cook projects Democrats could gain 9 to 19 House seats.
Spartz is also the target of a $2 million ad blitz from a national clean energy super PAC that touts a perfect record of ousting its targets. Its ads hit her over stock trades and her health care votes.
Ford said “nonpartisan experts are seeing what we’ve known all along: this race is wide open.”
Spartz’s campaign said there’s “zero chance” voters would elect Ford, calling him an extremist.
Victoria Spartz jumps on anti-trans bandwagon with latest Ford attack ad (Facebook)
Rep. Victoria Spartz’s campaign is running an ad asking why Democratic challenger state Sen. J.D. Ford is “LYING” about her, claiming he’s hiding a “radical record.”
The ad accuses Ford of supporting “sex change surgeries for children,” “men in girls’ sports,” defunding the police, “denying sexual assault victims’ rights,” higher taxes, more benefits for “illegal aliens,” and claiming “being white makes you racist.”
It echoes the GOP’s national closing strategy of leaning on anti-trans and culture-war attacks in competitive races.
It’s Spartz’s answer to ads from a Ford-linked PAC accusing her of getting rich on stock trades.
The GOP’s Culture-War Hail Mary (Atlantic)
With the Iran war in its seventh month, gas averaging $4.50 and Trump deeply underwater, Republicans are closing the midterms with anti-trans attacks, betting it energizes their base and divides Democrats, as it did in 2024.
In Texas, an AI-generated ad casts Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico as Maria von Trapp singing about girls with mustaches. Another, echoing LBJ’s “Daisy” ad, shows an AI Talarico in scrubs looming over a little girl in a hospital bed.
Trump himself told the Dallas GOP convention he’s “petrified” Democrats might change their stance on trans athletes: “That’s one of our great sound bites of all time.”
Some Democrats are now distancing themselves. Talarico calls his past comments “cringey,” Rob Sand says “girls’ sports are for girls,” and Amy Acton says she doesn’t support “boys playing in girls’ sports,” which LGBTQ advocates call misgendering.
An Ohio Democratic Pride Caucus leader warns the party risks “throw[ing] trans rights under the bus,” leaving voters in 2028 with “a transphobic Republican and a transphobic Democrat for president.”
Democratic Senate candidate responds to anti-trans attacks pushed by Republicans (Guardian)
South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who has been vocal in supporting trans people, released an ad declaring: “I don’t support biological men playing in women’s sports, and I don’t support and haven’t ever performed gender surgery for minors.”
It responds to Trump’s attacks and a super PAC ad backing Republican Darline Graham that says Andrews “is for they/them” and frames a trans person as a predator toward a child, language nearly identical to the 2024 anti-Harris ads.
Other Democrats in Trump-won districts are shifting too: Rep. Marcy Kaptur touts voting “with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools,” and Rep. Don Davis says states should decide.
Equality PAC called Kaptur’s language “unacceptable” and pulled its support. The Human Rights Campaign warned that “turning on a vulnerable community is... exactly what Trump, Musk, and MAGA want.”
HRC instead praised Sherrod Brown’s approach of having voters dismiss the attacks, asking, “With everything going on, that’s what they’re talking about?”
Secretary of State
“We need more Jesus in our politics today,” says Beau Bayh (Adam Wren on X)
At a megachurch appearance, the pastor introduced Democratic secretary of state candidate Beau Bayh by praising his father, Evan Bayh, as a “great leader,” then told women in the crowd that Beau is “30 and single,” “straight, so you don’t have to worry about that,” and “all man.”
Bayh thanked the congregation for praying for his family after his mother’s death and described the duties of secretary of state.
He then addressed anger and division in politics: “We need more Jesus in our politics. Jesus taught us to lead not by dividing, not by anger and fear and hatred, but by reaching out to people you don’t always agree with.”
The congregation prayed over his campaign before breaking into “God Bless America.”
Sharp divides in Indiana secretary of state debate over noncitizen vote, spending audit (ICC)
At the Indiana Debate Commission’s secretary of state debate, Republican Max Engling claimed he’s the only candidate committed to blocking noncitizen voting. Greg Ballard called that “ludicrous,” and Beau Bayh called it “ridiculous,” noting noncitizen voting is already illegal.
Bayh said Engling is “making this up because he wants to stoke fear.” Libertarian Lauri Shillings said Engling is “looking for a problem that doesn’t exist” by importing the SAVE Act.
Bayh hammered current Secretary of State Diego Morales’ spending, including a $92,000 luxury SUV, family hires, unexplained travel and no-bid contracts to donors, and promised a forensic audit. Engling, who beat Morales for the nomination, backed only an inspector general review, which Bayh called “kick[ing] this can down the road.”
Bayh also pushed ending straight-ticket voting and allowing citizen ballot initiatives. Engling opposed both.
Ballard repeated his call to replace the partisan Election and Recount commissions with judges. Republicans have won every secretary of state race since 1994.
Walker crosses party lines, endorses Democrat Beau Bayh for secretary of state (Columbus Republic)
Outgoing GOP state Sen. Greg Walker of Columbus, a 20-year senator and former Senate Elections Committee chair, endorsed Democrat Beau Bayh for secretary of state.
“I am a lifelong Republican, and I’m proud to vote for Beau Bayh. Hoosiers deserve better than the corruption that has plagued the Secretary of State’s office,” Walker said.
Walker was one of the most vocal Republican opponents of last year’s Trump-backed congressional redistricting push, and lost his primary this year to Trump-aligned state Rep. Michelle Davis.
Bayh said they share “a commitment to integrity and accountability in public service — a commitment that goes far beyond partisanship.”
Former GOP lieutenant governor endorses Ballard in secretary of state race (ICC)
Former Republican Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann, who served under Mike Pence and later led Ivy Tech, endorsed Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard for secretary of state over GOP nominee Max Engling.
“Good governance... has to be the top priority, even above a party,” she said, adding that she “didn’t see” the Republican Party elevating strong candidates.
She still calls herself a Republican and chose to go public rather than quietly vote for Ballard.
Like Greg Walker, Ellspermann broke with top Republicans last year to oppose Trump’s congressional redistricting push.
Lincoln Party puts out statement of principles, which foe calls ‘bare minimum’ (ICC)
After criticism for having no policy platform, the Lincoln Party released a “statement of principles” all its candidates and officials must sign, covering broad ideals like equal rights and “governing in the public interest.”
The party gains automatic statewide ballot access if Greg Ballard tops 2% in the secretary of state race. Chair Nathan Gotsch, also Ballard’s campaign manager, says the goal is to let independents run without gathering petition signatures.
Republican Max Engling has faulted the party for taking no stances on taxes or social issues: “To me, that says nothing about what they stand for.”
Libertarian Lauri Shillings called it “a code of conduct... It’s nice, but it isn’t a policy platform,” setting “a bare minimum standard” most officials already follow.
Lincoln Party candidate Ballard starting TV ads in Indiana secretary of state race (ICC)
Greg Ballard launched his first TV ad, starting Monday with an initial $50,000 weekly buy he plans to grow before Election Day. It’s the first widespread TV campaign by a non-major-party candidate in at least decades.
The ad highlights his 23 years in the Marine Corps and eight years as Republican mayor of Indianapolis, pitching an “independent” run to “restore professionalism.”
He’s up against a $1 million state GOP ad push for Max Engling, including spots attacking Ballard over tax hikes and crime as mayor. Beau Bayh has been on air since August, attacking Engling but not Ballard.
Ballard’s campaign spent nearly $800,000 through June gathering 74,000 signatures to make the ballot. “No one thought we’d raise enough money to be on television,” he said.
State Legislature
Alting accused of 2 recent Walmart shoplifting incidents (Lafayette Journal&Courier)
Longtime GOP state Sen. Ron Alting, 70, is accused of shoplifting from Walmarts in Lafayette on Sept. 22 and Monticello on Oct. 1. In Lafayette, police say a man and woman briefly stopped by store security fled in a green pickup.
Alting said he’s been experiencing “concerning changes in my judgment and cognitive functioning,” is undergoing medical evaluation, and “did things that were wrong and completely out of character for me.”
He’s stepping back from active campaigning but remains on the ballot against Democrat Natasha Baker of Battle Ground. He has held the District 22 seat since 1998.
An Elkhart County special prosecutor is reviewing the Lafayette case for possible charges. Monticello police have refused to release details, including the daily call log state law requires be made public.
Prosecutor to weigh 6 Lafayette theft cases linked to Alting (Lafayette Journal&Courier)
The special prosecutor is now investigating six alleged Walmart thefts in Lafayette tied to Sen. Ron Alting, not just one. The J&C confirmed he’s the suspect.
The alleged incidents span Aug. 5 to Sept. 22, all at the same east-side Walmart, before the separate Oct. 1 theft in Monticello.
Alting was unavailable for comment on the additional cases. He previously attributed his actions to “concerning changes in my judgment and cognitive functioning.”
Monticello police released only a redacted log for the Oct. 1 incident, without the factual details state public records law requires.
Indiana Ballot Questions
Should suspects charged with crimes other than murder be held without bond? Indiana voters will soon decide (FOX59)
Indiana voters will decide on a constitutional amendment allowing judges to deny bail to people charged with crimes other than murder or treason, if the state proves “by clear and convincing evidence” they pose a public safety threat. If approved, it takes effect Jan. 1, 2027.
GOP Sen. Aaron Freeman admits the amendment is “very broad — that is true, but I think it needs to be,” arguing judges need it for violent repeat offenders.
Defense attorney Mike Cunningham warns it could create a “plea machine,” pressuring low-income defendants to plead guilty just to get home to their families, even when they might be acquitted at trial.
Democratic Sen. Rodney Pol warns of jail overcrowding and costs, since defendants could be held a year or more before trial. Nationally, 69% of jail inmates in mid-2024 were awaiting trial.
Author Sen. Eric Koch says a companion law guarantees counsel, prompt hearings and speedy appeals: “I don’t think that we could let that hypothetical get in the way of public safety.”
Indiana Public Question 2, Residency Requirements for City and Town Court Judges Amendment (Ballotpedia)
Public Question 2 would let city and town court judges live anywhere in their court’s county or the nearest bordering county. Right now they must live in the city or town itself.
Indiana has 38 city courts and 14 town courts handling local ordinance violations, misdemeanors and infractions.
Sponsor Rep. Michael Aylesworth (R) says lawyers who could become judges are increasingly scarce in rural areas as older attorneys retire.
Indiana has about 2.2 lawyers per 1,000 residents, well below the national average of four, and nearly half the state’s lawyers are in or around Indianapolis.
Ballotpedia found no organized opposition and no campaign money on either side.
Youth Protests
Protests sweep France, as student walkouts tap into public discontent (WaPo)
Student walkouts that began in late September over crowded classrooms and understaffing have spread across France, drawing an estimated 250,000 to 450,000 people Tuesday as major unions joined.
More than 5,000 people have been detained, mostly minors, and nearly 300 students and school staff injured. Rights groups accuse police of heavy-handed tactics including rubber bullets, and a teenager in Lens reportedly lost a hand touching a stun grenade.
The protests tap broader anger over austerity, as the government pushes a 2027 budget freezing public wages and limiting health costs amid record debt. Comparisons to the Yellow Vests movement are growing.
It comes six months before France’s presidential election, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen leading in the polls.
Trump falsely blamed the unrest on “out of control mass migration,” posting “This is about Islam wanting to take over a once great Country!” Migration and religion haven’t figured in the protesters’ demands at all.
Spain’s Protesters See ‘Madness’ of Rising Rent and a ‘Martyr’ in Maricarmen (NYT)
Thousands marched in Madrid in memory of María del Carmen “Maricarmen” Abascal, an 87-year-old whose dramatic eviction two weeks ago became a symbol of Spain’s housing crisis. She died Wednesday.
Her eviction prompted Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to call snap elections, pitching a left-wing majority as the way to tackle housing. Conservative and far-right parties are framing the vote as a referendum on Sánchez himself.
Rents in Spain have risen 87% since 2015 while wages rose just 28%, per El País, leaving many young Spaniards living with their parents into their 30s.
Hundreds of tents have sprung up in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol since the eviction. “Maricarmen was the last straw,” said one 22-year-old camper.
A 72-year-old retired teacher who owns his home said he joined anyway because rents in his working-class neighborhood have nearly doubled: “The madness has reached us there, too.”
India cracks down on youth protests as anger grows against Modi and election chief (NPR)
Indian police detained thousands of protesters in New Delhi, blocking a rally by the youth “Cockroach” movement before it could start. Officers boarded a plane to detain three movement leaders, set up checkpoints into the capital, banned gatherings of five or more and restricted mobile internet.
Protesters are demanding the resignation of India’s election chief over a voter roll revision that has removed more than 130 million names. The opposition says it disproportionately purges its voters while sparing Modi’s supporters.
The Election Commission and government deny any manipulation, saying the revision removes duplicate and ineligible entries. A spokesperson for Modi’s party dismissed protesters as “anarchic elements.”
The movement began online as satire in May and forced Modi’s education minister to resign in July over exam paper leaks, a rare setback for Modi in more than 12 years in power.
“We are a democracy, yet peaceful protests are being crushed by force,” said one college student. “Why is Modi afraid of India’s young people?”
Dozens of protests held nationwide in wake of Cornell rape accusations (USA Today)
Survivors, students and advocates held walkouts, rallies and vigils in more than 40 states Wednesday, with more than 150 events and students expected to walk out on 50-plus campuses, in response to Cornell’s handling of the alleged gang rape.
The “From the Frat House to the White House” National Day of Action was organized by Women’s March, me too International and others. In Washington, women who have accused Trump and Jeffrey Epstein of sexual assault spoke near the White House.
Cornell has hired former acting Attorney General Sally Yates to review its sexual assault policies, calling the allegations “a defining moment” in its history.
UCLA protesters demanded a policy review, mandatory in-person training, and tuition reimbursement for victims who withdraw.
“This is the moment that is kind of a break-glass moment for our society to reckon with... gender-based violence,” said Women’s March’s Rachel O’Leary Carmona.
